By the time that we reach 13.6 next summer, even that 40 GB disk with 22 GB of free space in 13.0 could well have lost sufficient free space to make further updates tight for free space. Once happily running macOS 13.1, free space was around 0.5 GB less than it had been in 13.0. Updating to 13.1 also has a long-term cost in terms of free space. To have any degree of comfort, make that a 40 GB disk with at least 20 GB free. In practice, even for the modest needs of a basic Ventura 13.0 installation in a VM, the smallest disk size you’ll be able to update from 13.0 to 13.1 is 33 GB, providing at least 14 GB of free space. So depending on when you run it, the installer might claim it needs 12.97 GB, 13.22 GB, or 13.56 GB of free disk space, but really wants around 14 GB. I was reminded of it when TidBITS reader Marc Heusser wrote to tell us that upgrading from macOS 12.6.1 Monterey to macOS 13.0.1 Ventura on an M1 MacBook Pro with insufficient free space resulted in errors that prevented the MacBook Pro from booting. For work, I need to run the Microsoft OneDrive client on one of my Macs, and I was surprised to see that it recently crossed the 1 GB threshold. Users are disrespected by increasing and surprising bloat in applications.
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